Orioles 4, Red Sox 3

Anyone that dares blame the Yankees for the Red Sox not making the playoffs deserves a swift slap to the face. The Red Sox surrendered a playoff berth that was theirs for the taking. It all happened so quickly last night, but this was a month long stretch of crappy baseball played by overrated, overpaid players. The Red Sox do not deserve to be in the 2011 MLB Playoffs.

Lester pitched well, all things considered. 6 innings, 2 earned on 3 days rest. I'll take that. He was a bit fortunate that Scutaro made that unbelievable glove-toss to Pedroia to start a double-play. Then Aceves did well, then Bard pitched a scoreless 8th, then Papelbon...

Papelbon had a tremendous season. But this is not the first time that he's been on the mound when a Red Sox season has ended with disappointment. I'm not saying we shouldn't re-sign him (unless we can acquire a similar talent for less money), but the facts are the facts. He has blown some pretty big saves.

It's a game of inches. Scutaro was inches from scoring on Crawford's double. But you shouldn't need a few inches here and there to beat the Orioles. The Sox had 7 games against Baltimore at the back of this schedule, and they went 2-5 in those games. The Orioles' payroll is $75 million less than the Sox.

And while the Red Sox lose the burden of JD Drew, but we're still saddled with Carl Crawford and John Lackey. This is not a complete team. All the preseason hype from all the suckers and fools in this town was over fantasy baseball stats. This team needs more starting pitching. They need another reliable arm in the pen. They need a full-time catcher, outfielders who play 150+ games, they need a bench.

There are good players on this team, good players with heart. Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis. There's talented guys like Gonzalez, Beckett, Lester. Buchholz will hopefully be healthy. Daisuke isn't a bad #4 or #5. Lackey needs to be quietly killed and his body left in a snowbank. But there is a foundation here. There's something to build on.

But there needs to be a significant amount of building.

One thing I am seeing from most of the team in their post-game media sessions is emotion. Frustration. Anger. Disappointment. That's been missing, at least in the public's eye, all throughout this stretch. Maybe this team can play with some fire next year. Then again, you have excuse conjurers like Lackey who think the entire universe (except for Jim Beam) is against them. I don't know how much this team's attitude will change. I think you have different kinds of personalities in that clubhouse, and when things go well on the field, there's chemistry. When they don't, things break down.

Bruins season starts in 8 days.

-The Commodore

Bruce Chen: Captain's Thoughts

If there is a 163rd game tomorrow afternoon, the Red Sox might be starting someone new. Bruce Chen's name has been thrown around as a possible starter for the Sox. At the moment, it would be John Lackey who takes the mound.

Not only does Lackey suck, he'd be pitching on 3 days rest. Chen would be on 5 days rest. Chen actually had a decent year with the Royals, going 12-8 with a 3.98 ERA.

Chen didn't face the Rays at all this year, but in 2010, he started against them once and it was a complete game, 2 hit shutout. But in '09 against them, he had a 6.2 inning, 2 earned run game in which he allowed 5 hits and 3 walks.

The current Rays aren't too familiar with him, as they only have 64 total at-bats facing him. 28 of those at-bats belong to Johnny Damon, who hits .464 off him. BJ Upton is 1/12 in his career against Chen. Other than that, though, no Ray has more than 5 at-bats against him. No Ray has more than 1 hit, either. Pitchers tend to have the advantage when hitters aren't familiar with them.

The Rays are more familiar with Lackey (235 total at-bats). They hit .294 off him. Damon is 22 for 60 (.367), Ben Zobrist is 8 for 20 (.400). Lackey was 1-2 vs. Tampa Bay this season, with a 6.46 ERA. Last year he was 2-2, with a 6.26 ERA. This isn't a good matchup for him.

Chen was hit or miss in September. On the 18th, he made a 5.1 inning, 4 earned run start against the White Sox. Then on the 23rd, he went 8 innings against the same White Sox, allowing only 1 run off 2 hits. He was 2-3 in the month, with a pair of brilliant 8 inning starts, and 3 mediocre 4+ run starts.

Lackey has hardly been better down the stretch. 0-2 record with a 9.13 ERA in the month. He had a 3 inning, 5 earned run start against the Rays on the 9th. Like Chen, he was inconsistent. Unlike Chen, he made 3 atrocious starts in September, not 3 mediocre starts. And his 2 "good" starts were just good, not excellent, which Chen's were.

It's not that Bruce Chen is a good pitcher. It's just that John Lackey sucks. I know the entire pitching staff will be available in the bullpen in case Lackey falters, but I think Chen is less likely to outright blow the game. And with Chen, there's at least a possibility of a very good start.

Neither option is very pleasant, but I feel like Chen is the lesser of two evils.

-The Commodore

Red Sox 8, Orioles 7

That was tense. The Sox' bats kept pulling away, but the Orioles kept coming. Nothing was easy. Just ask Papelbon after he needed 28 pitches for one inning (he needed 29 on Sunday).

The bats needed to come alive, as Bedard just wasn't good enough. Again. Thankfully, the Sox have Alfredo Aceves, who is the biggest unsung hero of the team. 3.2 innings from him (getting 1 more out than Bedard could), as he deservedly got win #10. He's pitched 113 innings this year in 54 appearances (only 4 of those were starts). Without him, the Sox are eliminated from contention over a week ago.

Daniel Bard sucks. I couldn't believe Francona didn't have Papelbon ready to come in to get the last out of the 8th. There's no way in hell that this guy is ready to be a closer.

Before last night, some people probably didn't know who Ryan Lavarnway was. After last night, I don't think anyone doesn't know who he is. He started off with a pickoff, then hits a 3 run homer, then a solo shot as an encore. He's 24, he hit .467 his junior year at Yale. He was hitting .295 in Pawtucket this year. Maybe he's a spark that this team desperately needs.

Ellsbury furthered his MVP bid with a 2 run homer in the 2nd. But another guy who has been contributing down the stretch is Scutaro. His 2 out double extended the inning that Ellsbury hit his homer in. Later, Scutaro hit a 2 run shot of his own. He's hitting .368 in September.

Now we wait for Game #162. The Rays beat the Yankees, thanks in part to a bases loaded triple play. So we wait. Jon Lester will take the mound for the Sox. He's 14-0 in his career against Baltimore. Though it's only his second career start on 3 days rest. That other start didn't go well (4 runs in 5 innings back in April of '08), but he only threw 55 pitches on Saturday so maybe he'll be better rested.

The O's will counter with Alfredo Simon who is 4-9 with a 4.85 ERA. He's a righty journeyman and not very good. There's no reason for the Sox to not score runs off him. He allowed 3 in 4.2 innings against the Sox earlier this year.

And if necessary, the AL Wild Card playoff game would be Thursday at 4:07, and would be in St. Petersburg.

-The Commodore

It's All About Pitching

Everyone's been blaming Theo and Tito for the Red Sox' September swoon. They're even blaming pitching coach Curt Young, which is slightly more intelligent since it is pitching that wins and pitching that loses. I know that's hardly an original thought, but with the blame game being played, I feel like all the fault for this stretch of wretched baseball belongs to this team's starting pitchers.

The Red Sox are 29th in Quality Starts (starts of 6+ innings, allowing 3 earned runs or less). 70 Quality Starts in 160 games. Only Baltimore has fewer with 60. The Yankees have 84. The Phillies have 107. And that's too bad, because when the Sox do get a Quality Start, they're nearly unstoppable. They're 54-16 in those 70 games (.771). Without a Quality Start, the Sox are 35-55 (.389).

Beckett and Lester have the lion's share of Quality Starts for the Sox. 38 combined. Yet in September, they've only each made one Quality Start. These are the foundations of the Red Sox rotation, and they are having two of the biggest slumps on the team.

One reason the Sox don't have as many Quality Starts as they could is the loss of Buchholz. Buchholz struggled in April, but 6 of his last 9 starts were Quality Starts. The Red Sox were 8-1 in those 9 starts. Losing him has cost the rotation some serious stability.

Losing Daisuke didn't hurt much, to be frank. He only had 2 Quality Starts in 7 chances.

I wasn't that impressed with this rotation at the beginning of the year. It seemed to rely on Beckett being consistent (something his career record has proven that he isn't), Daisuke being both good and healthy (something which is almost as rare as Beckett being consistent), a young Buchholz duplicating an extraordinary season, and John Lackey being the exact opposite of what he's been lately.

Lackey actually got worse, Beckett was great for a time, but now he's slumping (his inconsistency reappearing). Buchholz was doing well then got hurt, Daisuke wasn't doing well then got hurt. And Lester is a good 2 or 3 pitcher and not an Ace.

We all thought we had a better rotation than the Yankees. But we don't. We never did. We mocked them for just having CC Sabathia, but there's no pitcher on the Sox even close to Sabathia. And the Yankees don't have anyone as bad as Lackey.

It's all about pitching. Even with a fantastic offense, if you don't get a good start, you're going to struggle to win. If Beckett or Lester each made just one more Quality Start in September, the Sox could have already clinched. Now, their postseason lives are on the line. And if they don't get Quality Starts in the next two (maybe three) games, then they'll almost surely die.

-The Commodore

Orioles 6, Red Sox 3

The Sox had Josh Beckett on the mound. They needed a great start from him. They did not get one. And once again, a poor pitching performance resulted in a loss. Although it's not like the offense did their job either. They got on base (11 hits, 4 walks), but couldn't get the hits when it mattered most.

I want this team to make the playoffs, simply to avoid the shame of such an historic collapse. But this team simply does not deserve it. People have criticized the GM, the manager, this team's "heart" or lack thereof. They've blamed injuries, and there's some validity to that. I, however, do not think this team has good pitching.

And while the offense scores runs in big bunches, it's not structured to be consistent. The lineup is too vulnerable if one or two key players slump at the same time.

The whole season is on the line. The Sox arrived in Baltimore with some momentum, with an alleged Ace on the mound, and with their destiny completely in hand. If they'd swept the O's, they'd win the Wild Card. Now the Sox have to win 2 games and they still might need a one game playoff against the Rays in order to make the postseason.

Erik Bedard faces Zach Britton tonight.

-The Commodore